To be honest, I don't think you can. 10 years is just too far out. I often sit back and just think about what we use daily, and take for granted, things that my Grandparents never saw nor knew about. So so many advancements, and AI will expedite those changes even faster.
Well written. Master craftsmanship with regard to your synthesis allows the reader to comfortably follow your insightful posits that build upon one another with clarity. Additionally, you anticipate and address questions and concerns of the reader well by providing ample well researched citations. Perhaps a bit too much reliance on the often cited Wikipedia citation with respect to the historical comparison to industrial age deflation. However, this is clearly and significantly offset by your ample use of a variety of sophisticated sources to buttress your insightful commentary. I am concerned that the initial and long term investments toward the manufacturing and service AI world will only perpetuate corporate profit taking thus rendering the deflationary utopia a bit more delayed, however I do respect your optimism as opposed to a boomer’s world view.
You make a great point about the potential delay in realizing deflationary benefits due to corporate profit-taking. It’s a real concern that the efficiency gains from AI might initially be captured by firms rather than passed on to consumers. As you said, that “deflationary utopia” probably won’t arrive without a mix of competition, policy pressure, and public demand pushing those gains downstream.
I’m hopeful that competition will eventually carry a lot of the weight — once one player starts undercutting prices through AI-driven automation and cost savings, others will likely have to follow or risk losing market share. But you’re right: this isn’t automatic. It’ll take more than just shiny new tech. We may need to see labor market reforms, tax restructuring, and a broader rethinking of the social contract. This is something I am thinking about constantly, and plan to write much more about.
And, truthfully, while I feel confident about the deflationary direction AI could push us in over the next 5–10 years, beyond that… I fully admit my predictive powers "Imagination" taper off quickly. The pace of change is wild, and the kind of economy we might have in 2035–2040 could look radically different from anything we’ve modeled so far. So, I try to approach these projections with both curiosity and humility.
Thanks again – I appreciate you taking the time to read and provide feedback!
I agree—this was written with a five-to-ten-year time frame in mind. I’d love to explore a piece with a ten-plus-year horizon, but I genuinely find it challenging to grasp the scale of changes that seem to be on the horizon.
To be honest, I don't think you can. 10 years is just too far out. I often sit back and just think about what we use daily, and take for granted, things that my Grandparents never saw nor knew about. So so many advancements, and AI will expedite those changes even faster.
Well written. Master craftsmanship with regard to your synthesis allows the reader to comfortably follow your insightful posits that build upon one another with clarity. Additionally, you anticipate and address questions and concerns of the reader well by providing ample well researched citations. Perhaps a bit too much reliance on the often cited Wikipedia citation with respect to the historical comparison to industrial age deflation. However, this is clearly and significantly offset by your ample use of a variety of sophisticated sources to buttress your insightful commentary. I am concerned that the initial and long term investments toward the manufacturing and service AI world will only perpetuate corporate profit taking thus rendering the deflationary utopia a bit more delayed, however I do respect your optimism as opposed to a boomer’s world view.
Wow — I’ve never been called an optimist before!
You make a great point about the potential delay in realizing deflationary benefits due to corporate profit-taking. It’s a real concern that the efficiency gains from AI might initially be captured by firms rather than passed on to consumers. As you said, that “deflationary utopia” probably won’t arrive without a mix of competition, policy pressure, and public demand pushing those gains downstream.
I’m hopeful that competition will eventually carry a lot of the weight — once one player starts undercutting prices through AI-driven automation and cost savings, others will likely have to follow or risk losing market share. But you’re right: this isn’t automatic. It’ll take more than just shiny new tech. We may need to see labor market reforms, tax restructuring, and a broader rethinking of the social contract. This is something I am thinking about constantly, and plan to write much more about.
And, truthfully, while I feel confident about the deflationary direction AI could push us in over the next 5–10 years, beyond that… I fully admit my predictive powers "Imagination" taper off quickly. The pace of change is wild, and the kind of economy we might have in 2035–2040 could look radically different from anything we’ve modeled so far. So, I try to approach these projections with both curiosity and humility.
Thanks again – I appreciate you taking the time to read and provide feedback!
William, you have done an amazing job. Thank you.
I wonder how quickly some of these changes will come about, perhaps faster than we think.
I agree—this was written with a five-to-ten-year time frame in mind. I’d love to explore a piece with a ten-plus-year horizon, but I genuinely find it challenging to grasp the scale of changes that seem to be on the horizon.